This is a short document containing some starting thoughts relating to
climate change.
Some starting global warming thoughts
Global warming links. I did some web searches on Saturday evening,
December 15, 2012. I was successful in locating actual data files,
including tabular data files, pertaining to global warming. The NASA
site contains data which appears to be very useful. A few links are
given below.
I am interested in obtaining actual data files so that I can do
analysis using tools such as the R statistical package, and other
related plotting and data analysis tools. Quite a number of nice pieces
of analysis as well as nice graphics are presented online.
A good question is how one defines average temperature. A quick entry
into this area reveals that this is a very naïve question. The question
of temperature or average temperature is complex, and may involve a
variety of different kinds of definitions, and or averaging techniques.
For example, how does one perform an average, given that there are
nearly an infinite number of possible ways of performing a weighted
average. Another example is that the temperature can depend on latitude,
country, and on many other factors and variables. So the idea of
something as simple as temperature itself turns out to be a very
difficult concept in itself. The very notion, or concept, of the
temperature of the planet is a very complex notion. How does one
normalize to remove effects: such as seasonal variations or other
things that are typically performed when performing data analysis. It’s
an interesting question. The earth is sick. How do you take the
temperature of the planet?
Links
Begin by using Google to search for appropriate key phrases, such as:
global warming data files. A search such as this produced items that
lead to the links below.
Wikipedia. This Wikipedia
resource does reference NASA, and this contains a nice set of data
files. Wikipedia is always a good reference, especially one that should
be checked out probably first. In this case, I was not disappointed with
the Wikipedia presentation.
NASA. NASA has some excellent
graphics, analysis, and actual data files. Some good
data including tables is
found here. General NASA
datasets of various sorts are
given here.
Other closely related links:
1,
2,
3,
4
(b),
5,
6 found
by search.
Other thoughts
A really nice set of
data is given, and also
see the referenced links. Note that data here is available in tabular
form as well. I may attempt to try to do some curve fitting type
analysis. But I'm not sure since I think it's all already been done.
I think there is really no question that there is a clear upward trend
in temperature. I'm sure if one did an analysis that one would find that
the slope is significantly different from zero. I may or may not attempt
to do such an analysis, since I'm sure it's been done before.
The question of temperature is actually kind of strange. The question
is: how does one really define it. It really ought to be thought of as
some sort of weighted average. Another thought is that it's actually the
entire set of temperature data which could be considered, instead of
just a single weighted value. Another thought is that it may be
temperature variation or volatility, either spatially and temporally,
that is also a significant contributor to the problem. Anyway, there are
lots of questions related to this. I can't define or discuss it all
right now. The notion of temperature, and the term global warming, are
actually somewhat naïve, and instead we should really think of this
problem as climate change, as you pointed out. And we should keep in
mind that the end result is not really temperature, but instead impact
on the planet.
There is a problem in going back through the history of temperature
data in that new methods for collecting and measuring temperature are
better than the old methods, and therefore the question is how the two
can be compared. There are all sorts of similar questions.
More thoughts
This global warming stuff is actually better to be referred to as
climate change. I believe that I have been very naive on this subject,
and I've been skeptical, as many people have been. However, somewhat
embarrassingly, I am finally catching on and joining the mainstream of
thought regarding climate change. It seems somewhat indisputable now
that the planet is warming up. The items discussed below include an
analysis based on over 100 years of temperature data, and it appears
to be true, conclusively, that there is a definite upward trend in
global planet temperature. Some of the links below refer to
temperature data that goes back to the late 1800s.
It is interesting though that the planet's temperature was trending
upward even at a time which was before we were outpouring green gases
into the atmosphere. So this is somewhat of a mystery. Certainly in
the last three decades there is also a strong upward trend in
temperature, and this particularly is when we are outpouring many of
the green gases into the atmosphere. But a good question is why was
the planet warming up during the time when we were not outpouring
green gases into the atmosphere. Maybe something else is causing the
upward trend in temperature, and not the CO2 concentration.
Another post in this blog points out the fact that it appears that the
temperature is the cause of the CO2 instead of the CO2 being the cause
of the temperature. Anyway, this observation strongly shows the notion
that each is the cause of the other, and this direction, which is a
feedback direction, shows that there is a strong compensation
mechanism to control the CO2 based on temperature, when the
temperature goes out of line. So the argument, based on this blog
post, should have the CO2 concentration lagging the temperature by 800
years. So when the temperature increases, it should push the CO2
concentration back down. There is very little talk of this feedback
compensation mechanism, but it appears to be true based on the blog
post showing the 800 year time lag. This is hard to explain.
One possible compensation mechanism is the algae in the oceans. When
the CO2 concentration increases, the algae increases, and this tends
to cleanse the CO2 from the atmosphere in that this small green life
form feeds on CO2. I do not see this compensation mechanism mentioned
in some of the simulations. Of course there is a problem with algae,
as has been noted in recent articles. The problem is that there
appears to be a depletion of iron in the ocean, and this is preventing
the new growth of algae, which is the CO2 cleansing mechanism. There
are questions as to what is causing the iron depletion. I am not an
expert on this aspect, however I have noted it mentioned. A question,
therefore, is: should we tamper with the iron balance in the oceans.
